Drawdown Recovery Calculator

See your real odds of recovering from a drawdown, how long it takes, and the risk of blowing the account first.

📉Your drawdown

Account size iYour starting balance and the target you need to get back to.

Current drawdown iHow far below your starting balance you are right now, as a percent.

Drawdown type iHow your firm's max-loss line behaves. Trailing lines ratchet up behind you as you recover, so they are harder to escape.

Max drawdown limit iYour firm's overall max loss allowed, as a percent of the account. The account blows if you breach it.

Daily loss limit iOptional. Max you can lose in a single day. Set to 0 if your firm has none.

📈Your edge

Win rate iThe share of your trades that close as winners.

Trades per month iHow many trades you place in an average month; used for the time estimate.

Average win iYour average dollar profit on a winning trade.

Average loss iYour average dollar loss on a losing trade (your typical stop-out).

📐Advanced settings (optional)

Enter your numbers, then run the simulation.

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Recovery probability

The share of simulated paths that climb back to your starting balance before blowing a limit.

🔁 Recovery

Gain needed to recover–

Median recovery time–

In months–

EV per trade–

⚠️ Risk

Blowout risk–

Current balance–

Room to the limit–

Losses to blow it–

The asymmetric math of drawdowns

The deeper the hole, the disproportionately bigger the gain needed to climb out. Your row is highlighted.

Drawdown	Balance	Gain to recover

How it works

Recovering a loss takes a bigger gain than the loss itself, because you are growing back from a smaller base: a 20% drawdown needs a 25% gain, and a 50% drawdown needs a 100% gain. This calculator uses that math, then runs a Monte Carlo simulation of hundreds of random trade sequences from your win rate and average win and loss, counting how many climb back to your starting balance before hitting your firm's drawdown limit.

The drawdown type matters. A static limit is a fixed floor, so recovery only depends on your edge. A trailing limit ratchets up behind you every time your equity makes a new high, so a choppy recovery can breach it even while you are still below your starting balance, which is why trailing accounts show a lower recovery probability. An end-of-day trailing limit only moves at the close, so it sits between the two. For the bigger picture on why low-variance strategies recover more reliably, read our drawdown distribution guide.

Drawdown recovery: frequently asked questions

Why do I need a bigger gain than the loss to recover?

Because you are growing back from a smaller base. Lose 20% of $50,000 and you have $40,000; to get back to $50,000 you need a 25% gain on that $40,000, not 20%. The formula is gain needed = 1 ÷ (1 − drawdown) − 1.

What does the recovery probability mean?

It is the share of simulated trade sequences that reach your starting balance again before breaching your firm's drawdown limit or running out of trades. Above 70% is a healthy edge; below 40% means the math is working against you.

How does the drawdown type change the result?

A static limit is a fixed floor, so only your edge matters. A trailing limit rises as your equity makes new highs during the recovery, so setbacks are more dangerous and the recovery probability is lower. End-of-day trailing only updates at the close, so it sits in between.

Is this a guarantee?

No. It is a statistical estimate from the numbers you enter and does not include slippage, fees, or psychology. Use it to understand your odds, not as a promise.

Where can I learn more about managing drawdown?

Read our guide on the drawdown distribution of prop firm strategies to see why smoother, low-variance strategies stay off the limit and recover more reliably.

Educational tool only. Estimates come from a simplified Monte Carlo model and the numbers you enter; they are not predictions or financial advice.