DanFin
This is where you'll find all my blog posts.
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A 2026 study finds GPT-4 reads company news well, but the famous 90% figure is mostly already priced, the real drift is small, and it is not a trading strategy.
Read the blog →What drawdown really measures, why recovery is asymmetric, why one max drawdown is not a ceiling, and how a prop firm's loss limit turns it into a survival problem.
Read the blog →How quants infer market regimes with hidden Markov models, why Princeton's 2024 jump model gave more persistent, lower-drawdown signals, and what it means for prop-firm risk.
Read the blog →Payouts, funded accounts and convincing chart explanations can all be real. None of them proves an edge. The evidence on ICT, SMC and order flow, and how to actually test the concepts.
Read the blog →Yesterday tells you little about tomorrow's direction, but a lot about how big the move might be. How volatility-based position sizing works, tested in a five-asset trend portfolio.
Read the blog →Two studies report strong historical results for five-minute opening-range strategies on US stocks, QQQ and TQQQ. What each found, what it did not prove, and how it relates to Nasdaq and prop firms.
Read the blog →Use Google Scholar, SSRN and ResearchGate to find the papers behind a prop firm strategy, judge which ones to trust, and let AI dissect them. Includes a copy-paste prompt.
Read the blog →A 45-year study of 60+ futures markets found the day's direction tends to continue into the final 30 minutes, strongest in NQ. What the evidence means, and the hedging mechanics behind it.
Read the blog →GEX is a model, not a measurement. What a gamma exposure chart actually estimates, positive vs negative gamma, the flip, call and put walls, 0DTE, and where open-interest-based GEX breaks down.
Read the blog →Use AI to write an MQL5 Expert Advisor in MetaTrader 5, then backtest your strategy free on an FTMO trial before you pay, and stress-test the results with Monte Carlo.
Read the blog →A deep, honest look at FTMO: its ten-year track record, real financials, the OANDA acquisition, challenges and swing accounts, reviews, and the genuine downsides.
Read the blog →Two strategies with the same edge can have completely different drawdowns. With Monte Carlo charts, why a prop firm's hard limit rewards low variance, not the biggest reward-to-risk.
Read the blog →The formula that gives your optimal risk per trade, why full Kelly blows funded accounts, and how to size against your drawdown instead of your balance.
Read the blog →90% of traders lose money, yet your feed is full of winners. Why that is not a contradiction, how gurus mistake luck for skill, and how to tell the difference.
Read the blog →Win rate or risk-to-reward? Both feed one number, yet a higher win rate still passes a challenge a little more often. Plus how to tune your odds of passing without a challenge that drags on.
Read the blog →Use AI to write a TradingView strategy in Pine Script, why backtesting alone is not enough, how to test on a large sample, and why stress-testing tells you your real odds of passing.
Read the blog →Why the same strategy can pass or fail purely on luck, and how a Monte Carlo simulation shows your real pass rate before you risk a single evaluation fee.
Read the blog →A five-rule framework for passing an FTMO-style challenge: trend-following, scaling in with DCA, Monte Carlo position sizing, precise lots, and diversification.
Read the blog →Put the ideas from these posts to work.
Your real odds of passing a challenge, across 20+ firms with their actual rules.
Open →The optimal risk per trade, sized against your drawdown and set to half Kelly.
Open →Your odds of recovering a drawdown, the gain needed, and blowout risk.
Open →Disclaimer: DanFin is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice, nor a recommendation of any firm, product, or strategy. The simulator and calculators are simplified statistical models based on the figures you enter; their outputs are hypothetical, are not predictions, and do not guarantee future results. Trading leveraged products carries a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed professional before making any financial decision. Some links on this site are affiliate links; if you use them, DanFin may earn a commission at no extra cost to you, which never changes the results the tools give you or the content shown.