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Calculate your odds of passing any prop firm challenge

This free prop firm simulator runs thousands of attempts against each firm's real rules and shows your real pass rate. Enter your strategy's stats once to see your odds across 20 firms.

📈Your edge

Win rate iThe share of your trades that are winners, out of 100.

Risk : reward iHow much each winner makes compared with what each loser costs.

1 :

Risk per trade iHow much of the account you risk on a single trade.

Trades per month iHow many trades you place in an average month.

✏️Evaluation rules

Prop firm iPick a firm to auto-fill its real rules below.

Challenge iThe specific evaluation type offered by that firm.

Account size iThe funded account size you are aiming for.

Drawdown type iWhether the max-loss floor is fixed or trails your equity higher.

Profit target iThe profit you must reach to pass, as a percent of the account.

Percent of the account. Multi-phase firms fill in phase 1.

Max drawdown iThe largest total loss allowed before the account fails.

Daily loss iThe most you can lose in one day before failing.

Leave 0 if the firm has no daily loss limit.

Consistency iCaps how much of your total profit can come from one big day.

Optional. 0 = none.

Evaluation fee iThe one-time price of the challenge, used for the cost estimates.

📐Advanced settings (optional)

Enter your inputs, then run the simulation.

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Pass probability

Based on thousands of simulated attempts using your edge against these exact rules.

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Edge reliability (1–10): how much your pass rate holds up once the uncertainty of your sample size and real R:R variance are introduced. Higher is steadier.

💵 Attempts & cost

Expected attempts iThe average number of tries it takes to pass, given your odds.–

90% certainty iThe number of attempts that makes you 90% likely to pass at least once.–

Expected cost iYour expected attempts multiplied by the evaluation fee.–

90% budget iWhat to budget to be 90% sure of passing (90% attempts times the fee).–

🕐 Time to funded

Expected days iThe average number of trading days to pass, across all attempts.–

90% days iThe trading days that make you 90% likely to have passed.–

Expected months iExpected days turned into calendar months (about 21 trading days each).–

90% months iThe months that make you 90% likely to have passed.–

To reach your target

The smallest single change to one input needed to hit your target pass probability.

How it works

Your stats

Win rate, risk:reward, risk per trade and trades per month, straight from your journal.

Real rules

Each firm's profit target, drawdown and daily loss, for the challenge type and account size you pick.

Thousands of runs

We replay your strategy thousands of times against the challenge, trade by trade.

Your odds

See your pass rate, cost, time to funded and exactly what to change to hit your target.

Read the full explanation

What a Monte Carlo simulation actually does

A Monte Carlo simulation answers a question a single calculation cannot: given randomness, how often does this turn out well? Instead of computing one average result, it replays the same scenario thousands of times, letting chance play out differently each run, then counts the outcomes. Think of it like rolling dice. You cannot predict a single roll, but if you roll ten thousand times you learn the true odds of every result. The simulation does exactly that, only the roll is one of your trades and the result is whether you passed the challenge.

This is also why running the simulation again with identical inputs may produce a slightly different pass rate. That is expected behaviour. Each run draws a new independent sample of random outcomes, so the reported figure is an estimate that varies marginally around the true probability.

Why it fits prop firm challenges so well

A prop firm challenge is a race between two lines. You are trying to reach a profit target before you hit a maximum drawdown or a daily loss limit. Your strategy boils down to a few numbers: how often you win, how big your winners are versus your losers, how much you risk per trade, and how many trades you take. Feed those in and the simulation plays out a full attempt one trade at a time, checking after every trade whether you have hit the target, broken a limit, or neither. Run that thousands of times against the firm's real rules, count how many passed, and that percentage is your estimated pass rate for that specific challenge. The same strategy can pass easily at one firm and struggle at another purely because of the rules, which you can line up side by side in the simulator below. If you want the bigger picture on why these challenges are so hard, read the nature of prop firm challenges.

Why it gives statistical confidence

A single attempt is mostly luck. You could have a profitable strategy and still bust from one bad losing streak, or scrape a pass with a mediocre one. What you really want is the underlying probability, and the only way to see it is to remove the luck of any one attempt by running many. This is the law of large numbers: the more attempts you simulate, the more the result settles on the true odds. The key thing it captures that a simple expected-return calculation misses is sequence risk. The order of your wins and losses matters, because a rough patch early can break a drawdown limit before your edge ever shows up. Averages hide that; thousands of simulated paths reveal it.

Realistic expectations

A pass rate from this tool is an informed estimate, and it is only as good as the numbers you put in. It assumes your win rate and reward-to-risk stay roughly constant and that you risk a consistent amount per trade. The numbers you enter have to come from somewhere solid, which means a proper, well-done backtest of your strategy over a meaningful sample of trades. Garbage in, garbage out: if your win rate and reward-to-risk are measured honestly from real testing, the simulation turns those numbers into a clear picture of your odds and shows how they shift when you change your risk per trade, account size, or target firm. Once your numbers are solid, our Kelly criterion calculator can turn them into an optimal risk per trade.

This tool is for educational and informational purposes only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. It does not predict results or guarantee any outcome. You are responsible for your own trading decisions, and if you need guidance you should consult a qualified professional.

Prop firm simulator: frequently asked questions

How does the prop firm pass rate calculator work?

The simulator runs a Monte Carlo analysis: it replays your strategy thousands of times using your win rate, reward-to-risk and risk per trade, against each firm's real profit target and drawdown rules, and reports the share of runs that pass. It also shows your expected cost, time to funded, and exactly what to change to hit your target pass rate.

What trading stats do I need?

Four: your win rate, your average reward-to-risk, your risk per trade, and your trades per month. Trades per month matters just as much, since it drives how fast you reach the target and how hard a trailing drawdown tightens against you. You can read all four off your trading journal or your last 50 to 100 trades. Not sure how much to risk per trade? Our Kelly calculator works it out for you.

What does sample size mean?

It is how many trades your win rate is based on. A win rate measured over 30 trades is far less reliable than one measured over 300, so the calculator treats a small sample as more uncertain and a large sample as steadier. The bigger your real, tested sample, the more you can trust the pass rate.

What is the difference between static and trailing drawdown?

A static drawdown is a fixed floor below your starting balance. A trailing drawdown rises as your equity makes new highs, so profits tighten your margin for error. FTMO uses a static drawdown, while many futures firms such as Apex and Topstep use trailing or end-of-day trailing. The simulator applies each firm's actual type. For a deeper look at how drawdowns actually play out across many attempts, read our drawdown distribution guide.

How accurate is the pass rate?

It is a statistical estimate from thousands of simulated runs on the numbers you enter. Real evaluations also involve slippage, fees and psychology, so treat the result as a strong, honest estimate rather than a guarantee.

Is the simulator free?

Yes. It is completely free with no signup: enter your stats and see your odds of passing before you pay an evaluation fee.

Educational tool only. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Pass-rate estimates come from a simplified model and the stats you enter; they are not predictions or financial advice. Some links are affiliate links.

Disclaimer: DanFin is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice, nor a recommendation of any firm, product, or strategy. The simulator and calculators are simplified statistical models based on the figures you enter; their outputs are hypothetical, are not predictions, and do not guarantee future results. Trading leveraged products carries a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed professional before making any financial decision. Some links on this site are affiliate links; if you use them, DanFin may earn a commission at no extra cost to you, which never changes the results the tools give you or the content shown.